9 Years of the Rohingya Influx: Only Verification Continues – When Will They Return?

 9 Years of the Rohingya Influx: Only Verification Continues – When Will They Return?

25 August 2017. Following the horrific atrocities that began in Rakhine, more than seven hundred thousand Rohingya crossed into Bangladesh within a few weeks seeking refuge. Exactly nine years have passed since that day. Yet the dream of repatriation remains just a dream. Only verification is taking place; the path to return is still shrouded in darkness.

Myanmar has rece
ntly stated that out of the list of 828,824 people provided by Bangladesh, information on more than 426,000 has been verified. Of these, over 308,000 have been identified as former residents of Rakhine. The number may appear significant, but the reality is that no timeline has been set. Naypyidaw has made it clear that repatriation will not begin until the security situation improves. Verification does not mean repatriation. This distinction is today’s starkest reality.

An even deeper problem lies in the question of identity. On one hand, Myanmar acknowledges the Rohingya as former residents of Rakhine; on the other, it denies their “Rohingya” identity and once again brings forward the term “Bengali.” This is nothing new. It has long been the country’s official position. But repeating this narrative at a time when discussions on repatriation are underway raises a critical question: is there genuine goodwill? What does returning without guarantees of citizenship and dignity even mean?

Nine years ago, the whole of Rakhine was under the control of the Myanmar military. At that time the equation of repatriation seemed comparatively straightforward. That reality has now changed. After the military coup of 2021, civil war has spread across the country. The Arakan Army has taken control of large parts of Rakhine. Many areas in northern Rakhine, including Maungdaw, are now under their control. Where Naypyidaw has no effective authority, who will ensure the security of the returning Rohingya? Who will run the administration? Who will guarantee their rights?

The rise of the Arakan Army has not brought new hope for the Rohingya either. Allegations of oppression, displacement and forced recruitment exist against them as well. As a result, the Rohingya have no easy side to choose. On one side stands Naypyidaw’s old identity politics; on the other, the complex new power realities in Rakhine. Repatriation remains trapped between these two.

The challenge has also grown for Bangladesh. For years discussions were held only with Naypyidaw. Now it is difficult to ignore the real power on the ground in Rakhine. Maintaining international pressure, securing humanitarian funding and dealing with the risk of fresh Rohingya arrivals all have to be managed simultaneously. Donor fatigue is increasing, and shortages of food, health services and education are appearing in the camps.

Cases continue at the International Court of Justice, that much is true. But a legal verdict and the reality on the ground are not the same. The old question of repatriation has become even more complex: Where will they return to? To whom will they return? With what rights will they return? And who will guarantee their security?

Nine years later, there is still no answer. Only verification continues. The day of return remains uncertain.